Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings. Kam Chancellor should have been MVP. Minnesota Vikings +4500 (bet $10 to win $460 total), I want to like Minnesota as a buy-low team after rebuilding its defense.. It was never even close as the Seahawks dominated from the opening snap. Tannehill is second in the league in passer rating (110.6), second in touchdown percentage (7.2) and first in yards per attempt (8.55). To no surprise: It's the Patrick Mahomes-led offense -- which includes Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and a rebuilt offensive line -- that leads the way and is more than 2.5 points per game better than the next-best offense (Green Bay). The aforementioned Dilfer-led passing game ranked only 23rd in the regular season (in fairness to Dilfer, he did replace Tony Banks midway through the year), and the only time the chains seemed to move was when rookie Jamal Lewis barreled forward for three or four yards. So why are they lower value-wise? and quarterback rating (112.4). The Bengals should be better, but they aren't close to competing for a championship yet -- especially residing in the AFC North. They went 3-0.. Arizona still needs more help in the secondary, but defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has man-cover corners to fit his scheme. The Cardinals added more playmakers to surround Murray this offseason with A.J. Jalen Hurts will not pull a Kurt Warner this year and lead the Eagles to the Super Bowl.. Its more fun to speculate on the Bears QB race than it is their actual Super Bowl chances., 24. Michael Strahan and Keith Hamilton combined for 19.5 sacks, and the team had 44 total. You may have been expecting one of the more famous Super Bowl results to land a little higher on the list. 3. 113 career TDs compared to 129 interceptions says that he doesn't deserve that victory. This may not be the worst championship team of all time, but these Four of those teams made the playoffs last year and Miami won 10 games. It was not only totally unexpected but it was made possible by a play-call that will be debated for years to come. FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense and worst defense in the league. And it isn't particularly bullish on their prospects. If Lance does beat out Garoppolo, that would be a sign he is comparable to the veteran, and thus a downgrade might not make sense. Cincinnatis late onside kick attempt failed and deprived us of what could have been a classic ending. As a Jets fan, I could build a flimsy case for the Jets to make the playoffs; I cant even fathom them having a shot at the Super Bowl. This game gave us one of the most iconic plays in Super Bowl history: John Riggins taking a 4th-and-one run to the house to help seal Joe Gibbs first Super Bowl win. The presence of Lawrence gives Jacksonville hope for the first time in years. Well, they blew their lead in the big game, but they also weren't a great defensive team. The AFC is considerably tougher than the NFC. Dallas Cowboys +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total), Realistically, Dallas is in the second tier of teams that could win the Super Bowl.. Super Bowl VIII: Nobody has a tougher September schedule: vs Seattle, vs the Rams, at Tennessee, at Miami, at Baltimore. A four-game stretch bridging October and November vs Bills, vs Chiefs, at Colts, at Rams should seal their fate. This was actually the closest one they played. Yet I can see the defense making a Washington-type leap, and the offensive weapons are there for whoever wins the starting job. They took down what was supposed to be the greatest team in NFL history and instead became one of the least likely Super Bowl champions in recent memory. Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. I'll take my chances on a 1-in-15 shot that the Niners put all the pieces back together and raise the Lombardi in February. https://ftw.usatoday.com/2019/01/2019-super-bowl-rankings-best-to-worst, a fascinating chess match between the Falcons and Patriots coaching staffs, Anthony Richardson showed off his freakish athleticism by breaking 2 NFL Combine records, Joey Porter Jr. shared a wholesome moment with dad Joey Porter at 2023 NFL Combine, Will Levis finally shared the origin story for his mayo coffee, How to watch the NFL Combine, live stream, TV channel, Quarterbacks, Receivers, Tight Ends, Bryce Young's measurements at the NFL Combine are almost identical to Kyler Murray's, C.J. 15. Of course, it is impossible to label a Super Bowl-winning team as average, but this 49ers team was certainly not up to par with others. The Falcons still have Matt Ryan at quarterback, who has thrown for the most passing yards in the league over the last three years and has a emerging star in Calvin Ridley and a game-changing tight end in rookie first-rounderKyle Pitts. Jacksonville was the worst team in the league last year, but the Jaguars were competitive in half of their games (seven of their losses were by one score). Dolphins fullback Larry Csonka plows between Vikings LB Jeff Siemon (50) and safety Paul Krause for one of his two touchdowns in the Dolphins 24-7 Super Bowl VIII win. Denver has eight games against FPI's bottom 10 teams: at Giants, at Jaguars, vs. WebAbout Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Their strategy to run it back with nearly the same squad looks (on paper) like it could pay off; the Bucs have an 85% chance to reach the playoffs and a 15% shot to repeat as champions, according to FPI. 18. I'm sure fans in Baltimore still curse Joe Namath's Super Bowl guarantee. Baltimore Ravens +1500 (bet $10 to win $160 total), The best team in the rugged AFC North, but the least talked about. Along with quarterback Earl Morrall, the Colts defense was the best in the league, only giving up 10.3 points per game. This 97 Cardinals team scored 78. WebThe Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. There are no arguments to be made: This is the greatest Super Bowl of all-time. This might be controversial among Bills fans, but this team was just as good as the year before. Although the Rams are FPI's top team of the bunch, San Francisco is actually the favorite here. IMPORTANT NOTE: I used my own mathematical point system involving team records, offensive production, and defensive production to determine the order. Complete team-by-team FPI projections Buffalo has a top 10 pass defense led by one of the game's best cornerbacks in Tre'Davious White and Pro Bowl snub Jordan Poyer, but the run defense has to improve to beat a team like Kansas City. In a 17-game slate, the division matters that much less compared to strength of schedule. OK, so this game was never in doubt, this was Bill Walshs 49ers dynasty at its apex. Dallas got out to an early 10-point lead and never looked back. Zaven Collins has strong NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year capabilities and Isaiah Simmons is expected to take a huge step in his second year. At 133, this defense was nasty by forcing 31 turnovers. Unfortunately, they lost both starting tackles for the Super Bowl and could not stop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beast-mode pass rush. Why? and Im sorry, but Dan Campbell is not winning the Super Bowl this year., 30. Mahomes becomes the first quarterback to win the regular-season NFL most-valuable-player award and the Super Bowl in the same season in 23 years. Those questions need to be answered in a division where the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses reside. The "Greatest Show On Turf" was the potential dynasty derailed by New England Patriots. Colin Kaepernick came in on a hot streak, but unfortunately, this team's attrition failed them as the team consisted of older players. This game mightve been higher on the list if the Jets hadnt pulled off the AFL-NFL upset the prior season. The first five weeks of Indianapolis' schedule are rough, as the Colts host the Seahawks and Rams before hitting the road to face the Titans, Dolphins and Ravens. Cole Beasley is also a reliable target for Allen, who does as much damage from the outside as well as the slot. Those first three are the Broncos' first three games of the season, an easy slate right off the bat. 55) Super Bowl XLVIII (2013) The 2013 Seahawks were able to take advantage of this game to solidify themselves as an all-time NFL defense. Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more, FOX SPORTS, SPEED, SPEED.COM & 2023 Fox Media LLC and Fox Sports Interactive Media, LLC. Los Angeles Rams +1400 (bet $10 to win $150 total). Miamis three points is still the fewest points scored in a Super Bowl. If Watson doesn't play in 2021, the Texans will be competing for the top overall pick in the 2022 draft. Super Bowl MVP Pick. Defense wins championshipsor at least they should. They faced perfection, so how can you be harsh when talking about them? But a lot of credit needs to be given to running backs Ickey Woods and James Brooks, who both combined for 1,997 yards and 29 touchdowns. Green, but for a young team with a young coach, locker room leadership was needed last year down the stretch when they lost five of seven and missed the playoffs.. The Dolphins won their second consecutive Super Bowl in a game that was over well before the fourth quarter. This contest was more important than nearly any other as it asserted the AFL's legitimacy as a league and proved it could contend with the NFL year in and year out. Another Broncos blowout. Something for everyone interested in hair, makeup, style, and body positivity. If the Saints slip a bit, there's a spot open for the Panthers to take a leap in 2021. Quick, use one word to describe Super Bowl XL in Detroit. Both teams have two of the most talented rosters in the league and look to make an even deeper playoff run -- finally attempting to end title droughts that have lasted more than a half-century. New York had to scrap its way to the Super Bowl. Osi Umenyiora was the team's only starting Pro Bowler and the Giants trailed in every postseason game they played. They went 7-3 in one-score games last year and led the NFL in turnover margin (+11). This is my ranking of the best bets you can make on who will win Super Bowl 56 starting with the teams I absolutely would not recommend putting even a dollar on (with all odds via FOX Bet). 25. So, which teams have won it all, but look inferior to their championship brethren in retrospect? Boomer Esiason and the Bengals were the most productive offense in 1988. They started 1-7, fought back into playoff contention, and cratered down the stretch behind backup QB Colt McCoy.. Throw in Trent Dilfer leading the other offense and a game that was never competitive, and this is easily the worst Super Bowl of all-time. This is the first game on this list that was actually competitive going into the fourth quarter, but it was a sloppy affair featuring seven fumbles and a pair of interceptions. The Titans thrust themselves into Super Bowl contention with the offseason addition of Julio Jones, a massive upgrade over departed free agent Corey Davis. New head coach Arthur Smith has some work to do this summer. Disputed loan at center of Commanders probe, Team-by-team strength-of-schedule rankings, Projecting the NFL's best and worst pass-protecting offensive lines: 1-32 ranking, Ranking all 32 NFL teams based on how much better (or worse) they got this offseason, NFL Future Power Rankings: Projections for all 32 teams for the next three seasons, Watson sexually assaulted them or engaged in sexually inappropriate behavior, Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information. New Orleans Saints +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total), The most puzzling number on the board, as Im much lower on the Saints than this.. Not to mention, Reggie White wrecking people on defense. Is this a bad thing?No, but it does not exactly make for one of the most dominant championship teams of all time. 10 wins in a 14-game season, and this was easily the least impressive of Tom Landry's Dallas Cowboys to reach the Super Bowl. The biggest preseason long shot to win the Super Bowl was the 1999 St. Louis Rams behind unknown QB Kurt Warner; the Rams were 300-1. 3) Only one of their final seven opponents has a season win total under 8.5. Los Angeles is going to score points this year. Jim Plunkett, a 33-year-old signal-caller at the time, was plucked off the bench early in the season and was the catalyst for the team making the playoffs, but even he only threw 18 touchdowns compared to 16 interceptions. Who do you think was the best team to not win a Super Bowl. You can make a case that every team that endured the best shots from every one of their opponents throughout the season, found a way to win enough Is the offensive line good enough to protect Burrow from getting hurt again? The defense got a huge boost with the signing of Haason Reddick and top 10 pick Jaycee Horn, but Carolina still has to deal with Tampa Bay and New Orleans in the NFC South. Let us first acknowledge that four future Hall of Famers were drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers in 1974 (Lynn Swann, Jack Lambert, John Stallworth and Mike Webster). Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total), Yes, I just wrote that 20-0 is in play. That alone earned the game a spot this high on the list. An 11-win season leaning on the talent of John Elway and the defense's ability to hold teams to under three touchdowns. Allen set the Bills' franchise record for passing yards in a season (4,544) and passing touchdowns (37), finishing with a 107.2 passer rating. This is one of the worst rosters in the league, but Houston (at least) has a chance to win games if Watson plays. The Chiefs win We cant put a Super Bowl featuring Rex Grossman too high on the list, but Peyton Manning winning his first ring salvages this one. Keep in mind, those numbers assume there is some chance Wentz plays in each of these games, particularly the later ones. Phil Simms set the record for completion percentage after finishing 22-of-25 in an MVP effort. This Bills team should have won a Super Bowl and it is hard to believe looking back. 1 in just about every projection you can imagine, including projected wins (11.5) and chances to reach the playoffs (89%), win their division (72%), be the No. Oh yeah, Marino's offense averaged 32.1 points per game, too. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all rank in the top half of the most difficult schedules. The teams combined for 11 turnovers. Dan Marino's lone Super Bowl and this team was his best shot. Theyve won 35 regular-season games in the last three seasons for a reason., When narratives build for example, that Lamar Jackson cant win in the playoffs you can find an edge fading them., 1. They lost the Super Bowl 1055 against the San Francisco 49ers. The Jaguars and Jets are back-to-back in FPI's rankings -- at Nos. This was a great Super Bowl, but can we stop saying the Titans were one yard short of winning it? FPI considers Houston more than a touchdown worse than an average NFL team on a neutral field and believes the Texans simultaneously have the worst offense It is not that these teams were not deserving of a Super Bowl, but rather that they do not stack up when compared to the greatest units the NFL has ever seen. FPI has created preseason projections every year since 2015, and the 2021 Chiefs rank third out of the seven favorites, behind the 2017 Patriots (32%) and 2020 Chiefs (22%). 5 offense. Give them five years to become a dynasty. Buffalo Bill's in 1992 super bowl against Dalls Cowboys have up 52 points to there offense managed 17pts (How about them cowboys.) that's pretty ba First place on this list scored 140 points in my grading system. This game will be remembered for two plays: The surprise onside kick to start the second half and Tracy Porters game-sealing pick-6 of Manning. 12. It was the biggest upset in football history for a reason. The New York team that was crowned champion was far from elite. Id have to guess the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. They had an outstanding defense, and thats what won them the Superbowl, but they didnt score many touch The Chiefs rank No. Rookie head coaches and rookie quarterbacks don't typically generate Super Bowl contenders. 13. In the Super Bowl, Pittsburgh managed just 16 points and won a defensive slugfest 16-6. This would have been yet another classic Steelers-Cowboys Super Bowl if Neil ODonnell didnt throw the game away. Although they have one less win, there stats still propel them ahead of the '86 team. Kind of. Replying to @GoBirds___ and @FanDuel. Kansas City's middling defense (No. In the playoffs, Indianapolis Colts kicker Mike Vanderjagt had to have a meltdown of epic proportions to send the Steelers to the Conference Championship and cover up for Bettis' fumble earlier in the contest. Super Bowl V between the Baltimore Colts and Dallas Cowboys is often considered the worst Super Bowl ever played simply because of the terrible play from both teams. They had a top 5 offense and defense. WebPer Reuters, the NFL issued a cease-and-desist order to a Las Vegas law firm over a Super Bowl commercial featuring Raiders DE Maxx Crosby. While that's a long shot with Kansas City in the conference, both the Ravens and Browns have at least a 10% shot to pull it off. Green Bay Packers +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total), The Packers are tied for the second-best odds to win the NFC, but their arduous schedule includes a league-high 10 games against teams that made the playoffs last year. One yard away from not even being on this list, the 133 Titans were solid. That decision is based on two factors: Garoppolo is generally believed to be the favorite over rookie No. WebTechnically the truth. The Bills could not close the deal in this four-year span, and most frustrating of all, all these teams were pretty well-balanced. Detroit has some work to do on the defensive side of the ball, a monumental task for new defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (gave up a league-worst 112.4 passer rating to opposing quarterbacks in 2020). Because there is a salary cap. When teams win the players want raises forcing teams to lose some players. This is what is happening to Green Bay an The AFL just wasn't ready yet, but they were still very good for AFL standards with an 11-2-1 record. The defense wasn't that much better either, finishing 27th in points allowed, 30th in yards allowed, and recorded the fewest turnovers in the league. 10. A 133 record, and a top 5 offense and defense, this was the derailing of a potential dynasty. Over the past three years, Cousins is seventh in passer rating (103.6), second in completion percentage (69.03), fifth in passing touchdowns (91), and 10th in yards per attempt (7.77). Atlanta Falcons +6000 (bet $10 to win $610 total), New coach, new offensive coordinator just too much newness for me., That being said, going 2-8 in one-score games last year was a killer, and if the ball bounces differently in 2021, maybe theyre hovering around .500. Two good-but-not-great teams playing an uncompetitive game with an unforgettable MVP? And while the effect isn't dramatic, they would each be a little better off if the other weren't around. It took just seven wins for Washington to top the NFC East last season, and FPI still doesn't think much of the division a year later. Philly was actually favored before the game, but Oakland made the betting line look silly early on, getting out to a 21-3 lead. This 11-5Oakland Raiders teamfinished second in the AFC West in an era when there were only three divisions. Tom Brady also led a top offense in his MVP season, finishing with a 133 regular-season record. The Kansas City Chiefs, winners of Super Bowl 57, are the favorites at +600. For a team with quarterback uncertainty, it could be much worse. This Baltimore Colts was coached by Don Shula and averaged 28.7 points per game in the '60s. What puts Baltimore on this list is the lack of offensive prowess. It has happened 8 times to 7 different teams. Interestingly enough, not only has no team won 3 in a row, not a single team has ever made it back to Everyone's mind goes to Rex Grossman, but people forget this overall team was more than their quarterback. The Bills ended up with the most wins in a season (13) since 1991. The same model expects Wentz to improve considerably off last season but not all the way back to pre-2020 levels. A 4.47 shuttle is extremely rare. This post originally ran in January 2018. They are part of the legacy of the biggest game in sports, and they had fought hard an entire winning season. 16. Yes, the Chiefs -- not the Super Bowl-champion Buccaneers -- are projected to be the best team and also have the best chances to hoist the Lombardi trophy next February. Las Vegas Raiders +6600 (bet $10 to win $670 total), One of the most dysfunctional teams in the league, the Raiders once again scream "stay away. Love the defense, which is good enough to vault Washington to the playoffs again. The Los Angeles Rams won in Super Bowl LVI versus the Bengals on February 13, 2022. The defense ranked just 24th in the league that year, and a questionable call known as the "Tuck Rule" against the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round helped the Patriots reach the Super Bowl when many believed they did not belong. But they have arguably the toughest schedule in the NFC (nine games against playoff teams from 2020), including a stretch that goes: at Baltimore, at Chargers, home vs Aaron Rodgers, at the 49ers. He finished fourth in the league in completion percentage (69.2), fifth in passing yards, fifth in passing touchdowns, and fourth in passer rating -- while also rushing for 421 yards and eight touchdowns. It has been updated to include Super Bowl LII. ", Remember, this is about *value* in Super Bowl odds. They play in an easy division and should be able to host a playoff game. Maybe the most controversial one on the list. So their overall grade suffered. So its only fitting that the winner of Super Bowl 53 will have a defense that finished the regular season below the league average. Brett Favre had 35 passing touchdowns and Dorsey Levens ran for 1,435 yards. 1980 was also the final year of "Stickum" being allowed in the NFL, and cornerback Lester Hayes used it to his full advantage, reeling off 18 interceptions in 20 games. Fran Tarkenton is one of many players on this list that deserved a Super Bowl ring. Here they are ranked: It was a lot of fun to research these teams to remember just how good they were their respective seasons. CB | Safety | OT | Interior OL 5. I have multiple tickets on the Jags - win the division, wins over, win the Super Bowl. Unsung, their defense only allowed 17.1 points per game. This defense really let the team down in the biggest game, but they were phenomenal and a top defense throughout the season. He also has the most game-winning drives and tied for the most fourth-quarter comebacks in that span. We hold major institutions accountable and expose wrongdoing. Los Angeles was a heavy underdog but actually took a lead into the fourth quarter. They face an NFL-high three teams coming off a bye week. Kansas City would be favored by 1.3 points over Tampa Bay on a neutral field if the teams were to suit up for a rematch tomorrow, FPI believes. We have all heard this "Cinderella story" one too many times, but it's worth going over for the purposes of this piece. This unit -- like the offense -- has the potential to be an elite group. A 15-1 team, losing to the Atlanta Falcons by a single touchdown, the 2015 Carolina Panthers were a dominant offensive force with an underrated defense. Those numbers should improve under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, as the Panthers will find out if Darnold can become a franchise quarterback. Los Angeles Chargers +3300 (bet $10 to win $340 total), The world loves the Chargers after Justin Herberts incredible rookie year (record-setting 31 TDs). 19. This 1969 Minnesota Vikings team was elite and ranked first for both points scored and points against. 1 seed in the AFC (32%) and reach the Super Bowl (30%). 2004-2023 CBS Interactive. (Hey, at least it worked out for them with Trevor Lawrence being available.). Plenty of star power like Todd Gurley, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, and Ndamukong Suh. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson don't lack confidence at NFL combine, Bettors are backing Bears, Lions, Jets to make, win Super Bowl, NFLPA report cards show link between player-friendly coaches and winning, Georgia's Nolan Smith turns heads with blazing 40 at NFL combine, Alabama QB Bryce Young confident in abilities, downplays questions about frame, Stroud opposes Bears drafting him, defends Fields: 'That's his team', Sharp: Ravens have themselves to blame for not getting Lamar Jackson help, 49ers offseason preview: Potential Super Bowl team must figure out QB spot. But itll face Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Matt Ryan, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers before Halloween. Herbert will have more protection to connect with a talented cast of offensive weapons as the Chargers rebuilt their offensive line centered around All-Pro Corey Linsley and first-round pick Rashawn Slater. A game remembered more for trick plays and bad refereeing than the actual quality of either team, the Pittsburgh Steelers emerged victorious in their effort to send Jerome Bettis off into the sunset in style. The game that confirmed Joe Flacco was elite. The only team in the division with a positive FPI rating -- making it above average -- is the Dallas Cowboys, who are just barely there at +0.7 (meaning they would be favored over an average NFL team by less than a point). Stefon Diggs is one of the game's best wide receivers and Gabriel Davis is one of the underrated young wideouts in the league. The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first conference championship game appearance since 1993 while the Cleveland Browns won their first playoff game since 1995. Unfortunately for them, that stopped in the playoffs and in the Super Bowl. To handle the uncertainty in the timing of Wentz's return, FPI gives the QB a very small chance to play in Week 1 and gradually increases the chance of his return until Week 8 -- spanning the range of the recovery timeline laid out last week by coach Frank Reich. Washington Football Team +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total), Ryan Fitzpatrick, a guy who hasnt been to the playoffs in his career, is suddenly going to get to the Super Bowl?. Oh, and they had Terrell Owens, who was a superstar. The 2000 Baltimore Ravens featured one of the most stifling defenses ever assembled, allowing only 970 rushing yards all season and five rushing touchdowns. They stole all-pro center Corey Linsley from the Packers and drafted Rashawn Slater in the first round.. There were 11 total turnovers in the game and the Cowboys took it one step further with a Super Bowl-record 10 penalties. As far as the division title is concerned, Baltimore is a narrow favorite over the Browns: 43% to 40%. Matt Rhule is building something in Carolina as he enters his second year, taking a chance he can resurrect Sam Darnold's career. It remains the worst run defense in NFL history. I did not mean to rhyme there. And they do return all 11 starters on offense and defense., If they get by the Rams in Week 3, theyll be favored in every game the rest of the way, and youll regret not taking a flier that you can potentially hedge later., 2. Its the only Super Bowl where a member of the losing team won MVP. Kansas City will be this team's measuring stick, as the Chiefs are the only roster more talented than Buffalo's in the AFC. That being said, wait until they lose the opener to Tampa, and then get them at possibly better odds. Tom Brady led the offense with Randy Moss and Wes Welker to score 36.8 points per game. Sign up for the For The Win newsletter to get our top stories in your inbox every morning. Cincinnati Bengals +10000 (bet $10 to win $1010 total), The Bengals will be improved, but theyre not higher on this list for three reasons:. The Dolphins capped off the only perfect season ever, despite Garo Yepremian give us an all-time blooper. Baltimore is well balanced, with a projected offense and defense (and special teams!) Malcolm Butlers game-winning interception remains the best ending in Super Bowl history.
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