AEST = Australian Eastern Standard Time which is 10 hours ahead of GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), abc.net.au/news/china-us-war-what-would-conflict-look-like-taiwan/101998772, Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article. "A big unknown is whether Japan would grant expanded rights to the US to use bases located on its territory, without itself joining the combat directly unless its territory is attacked. "It is not clear how formidable Taiwan'sdefences would prove to be in the face of a Chinese invasion. Beijing has already put its assets in place. Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war And I believe he is ready to exploit this with a multipronged campaign to divide Americans and undermine and exhaust their will to engage in a prolonged conflict what Chinas military calls enemy disintegration. We once had a praiseworthy reputation for the quality of our leadership and our officials. Allan Behm, who is now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years, the best one might envisage for the US is a stalemate. No other country on the planet, save New Zealand, is better placed from a purely defensive perspective. It is very plausible to say there is no guarantee of victory in the first phases, Lyle Goldstein, a research professor at the Naval War Colleges China Maritime Studies Institute, told Newsweek. Army Leader Warns About Potential Land War with China Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . How Japan is fortifying a string of tiny islands to fence in China, Taiwan takes lessons from Ukraine as it speeds development of drones for military use, Visiting US Marine Corps chief warns 'everything in the cupboard' needed to prevent war with China, Man discovers two highly venomous species battling in his shed, Inside the family succession drama threatening to change the K-pop industry forever. The US would be challenged by a powerful Chinese fleet in the region. "In their use of armed force, the American operational paradigm is largely unconcerned by its own casualty rates, so long as they are lower than those of their adversary. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating for years, with Beijing now sending fighter jets and nuclear-capable bombers into Taiwan's air defence zone on a near-daily basis. If there is going to be a war between Taiwan and China, we will fight the war ourselves, he said. But, his hawkish new boss, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, says war with China should not be discounted. Beyond 10 years, who knows? It may be possible for the US to operate from bases in northern Australia, though whether overflight rights would be granted by Indonesia is unlikely. Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. And they cannot be rearmed at sea. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? The capital of China is Beijing. Allan Behm, now head of the international and security program at The Australia Institute, says were the US and China to go to war over the next five to 10 years the best potential outcome for the US is a stalemate. "He would rather support Taiwan and enlist countries around the world in sanctioning or condemning China. "Firepower strikes described above would be accompanied by cyber operations to ensure information is blocked as well. We dont own cargo ships to force vital supplies through any blockade. Stavros Atlamazoglou. It would be relatively easy for China to establish a credible air and sea exclusion zone around Taiwan, and thereby put immense pressure on the Taiwanese to accept Beijings terms. Do they think an all-volunteer defence force can do the job? The Chinese defence budget reached $324 billion this year. And I cannot see America being willing to risk Chinese nuclear retaliation against the US homeland for Taiwan's sake. "Nor can it rely on the US for resupply by sea once a conflict begins. "This would be a far cheaper and less risky way to achieve its objectives. Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). "Because the stakes for both sides are so high, and both are so well armed, it would swiftly escalate into a full-scale regional maritime war," he says. The most immediate fight, however, appears to be centred on Taiwan. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. It can impose costs on our forces. "A China-US war over Taiwan would begin as an air-sea war, with China seeking to impose punitive costs on the US Navy and such US Air Force units as were able to operate. To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. "If they think the blockade is failing, they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted or they might escalate to attacking US forces supporting Taiwan. And that is where any fight to resolve Taiwans fate will be resolved. Our biggest customer is now also viewed as our biggest threat andChina's muscle-flexing around Taiwan last week only strengthened the view that a war involving Taiwan is a genuine possibility. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. The only way we can possibly win such a war is to build a coalition similar to NATO. "It would suffer high attrition and its military modernisation and even its one-party Communist rule would be threatened. A war would halt this trade (as well as American and allied shipments to China). Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at the moment, for Australians this surely is one of the most important discussions we must have. Why Australia-China War Talk is Rising Between the Two Nations - Newsweek The US is suddenly no longer the world's only military superpower. This article was originally published by Radio Free Asia and is reprinted with permission. And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. US forces would be fully committed to the maximum of their capacity, and they would expect and indeed demand the same of us.. A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Find out more about our policy and your choices, including how to opt-out. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. "For my part Australians may be able to defend our nation because of our geographic good luck. A separatist democracy against a legitimate government? Part 2. Today, Chinas military spending is the second-highest in the world after the United States and continues to rise. "So, how would China prosecute the war? But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. "Washington would expect Australia to contribute the full range of our air and naval forces to the maximum extent of our capability, including surface warships, submarines, F-18 and F-35 fighters, P-8 maritime patrol aircraft, airborne early warning aircraft and tanker aircraft.. It was Kevin Rudd who coined the phrase a "decade of living dangerously". This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. The war has exposed divisions within the G20 that go beyond Russia and China. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. "I hope they don't mean that, just as Britain has the Gurkhas, the Americans have us. How Australia's way of life could change if we're pulled into war with Which is why Dr Davis argues any conflict would likely focus on two strategic waterways the Bashi Channel and Miyako Strait that guard the China Seas. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. Oriana Skylar Mastro of Stanford University has testified that China dedicates all its resources to planning and preparing for a contingency in east Asia, while the US has additional responsibilities in the Middle East, Europe and worldwide. The US will pursue the following war aims: 1. Of all the uncertainty and conflict in the world at moment, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue issurely one of the most important discussions we must have. "In its causation, [war with China] would be no different from any of the wars Australia has participated in since World War II. "China's leaders could discreetly offer negotiations to Taiwan's leaders during a blockade before the risky step of ordering an amphibious invasion," Professor Fernandes says. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. A Chinese close-in weapons system (CIWS) designed to shoot down incoming missiles during recent war games. "The irrational elements thus make direct large-scale confrontation between two nuclear powers very dangerous. Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. US will 'lose fast' in war with China, Air Force's simulation shows Today, the analysis of Allan Behm, a former head of the International Policy and Strategy Divisions of the Defence Department and Professor Clinton Fernandes, a former intelligence officer in the Australian military, are investigated. We cannot lose a single inch of the lands we inherited from our ancestors, the Chinese Defense Ministrys Information Bureau recently proclaimed, and we would not take a single cent of others possessions., RELATED: Drums of war: Ominous China warning. "Australia's real utility is as a strategic asset, giving both legitimacy and credibility to the US decision to employ its very formidable military force, and at the same time providing the US with a secure rear that could guarantee logistic and operational support. Far fewer know their real story. "The bases in South Korea and Japan may not be available, and Guam may also be unavailable. These are all Cold War allies of the US, but they have not had to think about war in the region since the 1970s. Inflation and unemployment would surge, especially in the period in which the economy is repurposed for the war effort, which might include some automobile manufacturers switching to building aircraft or food-processing companies converting to production of priority pharmaceuticals.
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